Written on December 8, 2005.
The folder from the Baker's Bay Golf and Ocean Club sales office in Guana Cay contains a number of articles about the Discovery Land Company, written by Golf Magazines and repackaged as reprints. Magazines like Executive Golfer and AvidGolfer make money by reselling their editorial back to the company they featured in their magazine.
In these magazines, the readership often also pays the advertising, the circulation is small but influential. There is little or no controversy in the editorial. In fact, the more influential the golf executive being interviewed, the more dolled-up the interview piece appears to be.
I read in a reprint that CEO Michael says, "like my children, I love each of the (golf) courses we've developed equally."
I read that his favorite executive jet is a Dassault Falcon 2000 and his favorite car is a Bentley GT Continental. He likes the BMW X5 and his favorite wristwatch is a Rolex Submariner. His favorite actress is Angelina Jolie and his hunting rifle of choice? A Tikka T3 30-06. Michael's favorite pet is his chocolate lab, "Shadow."
I'm reading about Michael Meldman, CEO of Discovery Land Company, And I'm wondering to myself...will the golf magazines print articles and interview Michael about the events of November 24, 2005?
The islanders of Guana Cay are protesting Michael Meldman's Discovery Land Company on the grounds that his megadevelopment is threatening to ruin their way of life, of ridding their children of a livelihood, of destroying their coral reef, their mangroves, their fishing habitat, and the relaxed integrity of their island.
It's November 24, 2005. On this beautiful morning in the Bahamas capital of Nassau, the President of the Bahamian Supreme Court addresses Michael Meldman's employee, Dr. Livingston Marshall, former environmental advisor to the Prime Minister.
Supreme Court justice Dame Joan Sawyer says to the Discovery Land Company's lawyer, "Mr. Barnett, is that your client behind you?”
Barnett says, "Yes M’Lady."
President Sawyer says, "Please ask him to stand!”
Dr. Livington Marshall stands.
President Sawyer says, "Mr. Barnett, Please tell him that if he nods and smiles to the court once more he will be spending the night in Fox Hill (federal prison) tonight! Is that understood?”
Barnett says, "Yes M’Lady!”
Fox Hill Prison is widely considered one of the worst prisons in the world and was ranked number four for human rights abuses.
The Discovery Land Company entered into a Heads of Agreement with the Prime Minister of the Bahamas that would allow them huge tax breaks and special deals in order to build a gigantic golf course and marina on the tiny island of Guana Cay, which is considered by a scientific consensus to be an ecological recipe for disaster.
Michael's company was offered a huge sum of Bahamian Crown Land, land that was set aside for the use of Bahamians. Because that crown land is some of the most precious in the Bahamas, it could be equated to President Bush offering Yosemite Valley to a Japanese fun park developer, for the exclusive use of foreigners.
The concept, which has so far proved a failure, is Prime Minister Perry Christie's: build a hub mega-development in each of the out-island regions of the Bahamas. The hub will attract other similar developments; replacing local economy's and local busineess with big-time Miami-style tourism and foreign development.
Bahamians everywhere were both disgusted and frightened. But they didn't know what to do about it. The inhabitants of the tiny islet of Guana Cay did something that Meldman never expected, and never dealt with before.
They fought back.
Troy Albury is Michael's chief rival. As President of Save Guana Cay Reef, his job is to lead the islanders in a way that will allow them to .
Albury is a local divemaster. There are no articles about him in Robb Report or Executive Golfer. He has no colorful, airbrushed mugshots appearing in any reprints. He probably has never seen a Tikka T3 30-06 or a Dassault Falcon 2000. Albury is just a native Bahamian; extraordinary not by the standards of golf magazines, but for successfully leading a campaign that has remained honest, open and on the right side of the science.
Troy Albury's Save Guana Cay Reef made an ecological case for their island, and hired the world-renowned Dr. Mike Risk to counter the ecologist Kathleen Sullivan-Sealey's EIA.
The islanders also began working with Frederick Smith, a lawyer based in Freeport. Fred Smith and the islanders sued the Prime Minister of the Bahamas on several grounds relating to their involvement with a foreign developer. This bold move made the peopel of Guana Cay heros to thousands of Bahamians across the archipelago.
But their case was thrown out of court in May 2005 on a technicality.
The questions being raised by the islanders about the legality of the relationship as well as the countless environmental questions were never heard by the Supreme Court, and so, after the court case loss, the small donations coming in from families around the country appeared to begin to die out.
The ragtag fellowship of islanders fighting against the multi-billion dollar Discovery Land Company was always a fragile one - if a couple gets pregnant, if the electricity on the island goes out, if a storm crosses their path, the very structure of their fellowship faces immense hardship.
By July, the rebellion against Discovery Land Company and the Government of the Bahamas seemed nearly crushed. Bahamians across the country, who have seen numerous developments exploit their land, hire foreign workers and eventually go bankrupt, seemed anaethetized to the bad news.
But by late Summer, some of the world's top coral reef and marine scientists started to get interested. Greenpeace and Sierra Club made their involvement on the side of the islanders public. Global Response sent out thousands of letters on behalf of the islanders. Scientists began examining the developer's EIA, and even offering to fly to Guana Cay to conduct their own research.
Meanwhile, Fred Smith appealed the Supreme Court. On November 24, their case was heard for the first time, and with the weight of the case being discussed all over the world, it quickly became clear in court that all along, this small island had legitimate points after all.
On November 24, 2005, the developer agreed to halt all development that could be construed to be destructive to the environment. Some quickly predicted that the developer offered this concession voluntarily, to avoid being served an actual legal injunction.
By the next day, all of Bahamas' largest newspapers
saw Guana Cay as story number one. Other out-islands whose culture is under threat by other foreign developments began increasing their calls to Frederick Smith.
By the end of November, it became apparent to regular Bahamians that the small group on Guana Cay represented the Bahamas itself. Although all they are fighting for is their own natural resources and their own independence, other Bahamians see them as signifying the fight over the Bahamas' future, and whether its willing to exploit their cultural integrity, economy and environment for a quick buck.
As the international press begins to hone in on this affair, you would think that the CEO who is so quick to tell the golf media so much about himself and his company, would chime in on his role in an issue that some claim is sure to become one of the world's cornerstone environmental debates of 2006.
But Meldman remains silent, instead offering to let his hired Bahamian face do the talking.
This hired representative, just days after the courtroom drama, emailed publicly with several islanders. His words are defiant and angry, but hint at how little the developer knows about the controversy brewing over their development.
The Discovery Land Company representative writes to a private anonymous individual:
Ok. My mention of the lies, misinformation and reference to things getting personal (example, name calling; attempts at character assassinations) was not directed at you. I have never felt that things were getting personal between us in our various email exchanges. I was speaking more to Erik's Notes from the Road and especially to the blog writings/comments that appears to be the 'brainchild' of some Great Guana Cay residents. Those writings are mostly despicable and any DECENT person would strive to distance themselves from such writings and at a minimum, not have their island's reputation associated with such writings.
My comments also spoke to the various derogatory and libelous comments made about persons associated with our project. Verbal attacks and insults have been hurled at many of these folks (in the past at Nippers for example). One only has to look at some of the blog postings and signs/pictures in various locations nearby Guana to get an idea of the mindset of the other side. I did not look at the links you provided because as I previously said, I have seen them once before and I have no interest in sinking to those lows by again viewing those sites. And honestly, should anyone expect to have reasonable interactions with persons who behave in such a manner?
I love my work her at DLC and with BBC. We are ushering in a new paradigm in development in this country and many people have no idea as to what we are doing. The old approaches to development would certainly generate many of the concerns coming from entities like SGCR and others; our project is taking a different approach and is capitalizing on new approaches, better science, better technology, sufficient resources, as well as caring and critical thinking developers.
The person writing the Notesfromtheroad.com has about as much experience dealing with real science as I have doing successful brain surgery. Where is the credibility in those notes and in the assertions made by your side? Dr. Risk was reasonable in his assessment, but the SGCR appear to have conveniently ignored some of his comments regarding the state of the environment as a result of Guana Cay resident activities. We have a plan and a very good one to safeguard our project's impact on the environment. Where is the plan for the existing Guana Cay to deal with existing environmental insukts ongoing on the cay?
I am confident that most reasonable marine scientist would agree that our approaches represent significant improvements over previous approaches to development projects of a size and nature similar to ours. One key example: our waste water treatment plant versus the cess pits that now exist at Guana Cay. As you well know, waste and especially cess pit sewerage is one of the biggest threats to the marine environment here in the Bahamas.
I am certainly not growing wary of defending our project. I have never had to do that. What I have always done is to try and EDUCATE people who are either unaware of the facts, choose to ignore hem or are being misled. For example: as a scientist, I was embarrassed by the 'report' supposedly completed by a professor from Pace University. The report was recently posted on the SGCR web site. Here's a simple way to measure the 'strength' and validity of that report (or any similar type reports): could it be published AS IS in any first, second or third tier marine science research journal?
I have seen the DLC Environmental Impact Assessment. Here's what must be communicated: EIA's are a plan presented by an entity as a PLAN'. It is never intended to be the final and or 'holy grail' for a project. That plan is then reviewed by an independent entity (in this case the BEST Commission) who will go through the document with a fine tooth comb. The entity responsible for preparing the EIA (in this case the developers and their environmental consultants) are typically required to 1) provide clarification and additional information on any number of areas within the EIA, 2) possible redesign of certain features in the EIA , 3) outright told that certain components as presented are unacceptable, etc. The developers must then respond. This iterative process continues until an effective, practical set of guidelines are achieved. This process is not a one day process; it is on average close to 12 months! when dealing with the BEST Commission. Not only is BEST involved in the process, it also often includes reviews/comments and recommendations from other entities such as the Water & Sewerage Department, Department of Fisheries, Antiquities and Monuments Department, The Bahamas National Trust, Environmental Health, etc. It is also not unusual to engage the services of a third party consultant for the Government to work through especially challenging components of certain EIAs. Compare these reviews and approach with those of your 'notesfromtheroad' or the other purported 'experts' that come in for a night or two and are then suddenly 'experts' on The Bahamas and its environments. In summary, this is a process that we employ here in The Bahamas that is in many ways, a very meaningful and workable process. Is it perfect: no. Will it continue to get better: yes.
In terms of the increasing strength for our project, stay tuned. In the interim, send me the names of 20 Bahamians whom you know are against this project. You keep telling me about all the Bahamians against this project, and with the exception of about 2 - 3 individuals, I find it difficult to agree with the contentions you make (RE opposition to our project).
The Bahamas is a Tourism based economy and we appear to be shifting more and more toward a positive response to the huge demand for second homes in our country. Unless we take a clear and unwavering position that we will NOT participate in the second home market, then we must assume that the second home market in this country will continue to expand. That being said, this country must become more and more selective in the type developments and investors we welcome to our shores. Further, we must recognize that the typical second home investor is looking for amenities that often includes golfing, boating, health (as in trails, spas) and in less instances, sporting (hunting, competitive games, water sports, etc.). In our deliberations, we must select the optimal set of condition that provides the optimal set of opportunities for The Bahamas and especially Bahamians. In other words, we must usher in a new paradigm in our approach to development and we cannot be deterred by a few nay sayers who are afraid to embrace change or cannot recognize the country's attempts to move in a better and critically needed direction with regards to a proper balance between the economy and the environment.
DLC is the first to push the development envelope in the new paradigm of a balanced economy and environment in The Bahamas.
I will do everything within my powers to ensure that our country turns this corner, embraces this new paradigm and company, and continue a relentless pursuit to better protect our environment as we provide meaningful growth, empowerment, and opportunities for the Bahamian people.
The scientist that the Discovery Land Representative derided writes back in a polite but firm message:
Since you made some comments regarding my position and work I did on Guana Cay, I would like to formally introduce myself. My name is Dr James Cervino, I hope you are having a good day and enjoying working in the Bahamas with this developer named Discovery Land Inc. that would like to build a Golf Course on a Limestone/Quartz sand island. I am wondering if you can answer the following questions; are you aware of the critical levels of nutrients that are published for oligotrophic coral reef eco-systems?
I very much understand that many marine ecologists working on NE estuarine wetlands have a different understanding of the levels of nitrogen and phosphorus that are acceptable for reef systems in the tropics. These levels are so very different and if one is following the criteria and advising this developer to apply wetlands chemistry concentrations in non-reef systems to be allowed and applied in a coral reef system one will create eutrophic conditions and kill the remaining corals that date 200 years old. My qualitative data suggests that these 200 year old corals will NOT survive this development project as they are in a critical state of stress. I may be returning to the island this January with my research assistants to conduct quantitative studies and begin lab work on the pathogens that are infecting these already immuno-compromised corals due to the recent bleaching event. my animals can recover if they are not further stressed ie. sedimentation and nutrient enrichment, along with the temps returning to normal.
My research involves coral physiology and how corals respond to thermal stress, nutrient enrichment and pathogens. I am specifically interested in cell-physiology of how these delicate coral-symbiotic associations function when they are stressed. Your position is completely esoteric to me in that I am not sure how you can think that this golf course will be an ideal situation for the reef in Guana knowing of the published papers that indicate the levels of nutrients that are germane in a healthy functioning oligotrophic coral reef eco-systems ? I understand that you have worked at the Smithsonian and wonder if you know Mark and Diane Littler? We are working on a paper that involves pathogens that are associated with coralline algae. Is the Smithsonian taking this position to favor a Golf course to be built on a coral reef island ?
We are finding that thermal stress and high levels of ammonium may be linked to increased spread of this pathogen that killing the substrate of coralline algae. I also published papers showing how thermal stress is involved in the rate of spread of yellow band disease. My PhD advisor Dr. Garriet Smith and colleagues have also published a paper that linked the levels of nutrients above these nutrient thresholds I cite below to increase the rate of spread of pathogens associated with coral diseases. The papers are attached. I can also send you papers by Dr. Brian LaPointe, and Dr. Goreaus web site that have many published reports we compiled that link coral reef decline to excess nutrients. Please reverse your position regarding this situation as I would be glad to work with you to protect this valuable resource. Remember corals provide humans with enormous economic benefits for "free" we should not exploit them for financial gain if it will harm them or lead to their demise, whereas we should all stand together to protect them given the health status and state of the worlds reefs today.
Can you guarantee that this golf course and dredging will not breach these thresholds?
My colleague Dr Thomas Goreau published this on our website: Only in recent years have we have learned just how low nutrients must be to maintain healthy coral reefs. The limits were found independently by two researchers working on opposite sides of the globe, who were not aware of each other's work. By looking at the relative amounts of corals and algae along nutrient gradients from intense land-based sources, namely agricultural fertilizers in Australia and bird droppings on a mangrove island in Belize, Peter Bell and Brian Lapointe independently determined exactly the same limit for acceptable nutrient concentrations. Biologically available nitrogen (nitrate plus ammonia) needs to be below 1.0 micromole per liter (less than 0.014 parts per million of nitrogen), and biologically available phosphorus (orthophosphate plus dissolved organic phosphorus) needs to be below 0.1 micromole per liter (less than 0.003 parts per million of phosphorus). In addition concentrations of chlorophyll (in the microscopic plants called phytoplankton) needs to be below 0.5 parts per billion.
Here are two paper that were recently published that pertain to the direct correlation between nutrient enrichment and coral disease.
Looking forward to your response, James
The Discovery Land Company representative responds to Dr. Cervino:
Dear Dr. Cervino:
Thanks for your note.
The points I raised regarding your 'report' is somewhat substantiated by your admission that your work is 'qualitative' - not exactly publishable material, and the minimum threshold I think we should take as responsible scientist and especially when its being given to entities who will view your work as an endorsement of their position.
Nothing in your report allows you to draw the 'conclusions' that you present. You present no hypothesis and definitely did not produce any kinds of data that would allow rigorous statistical analysis on which any kinds of scientific conclusions could be based. Essentially what you wrote was an opinion, which in and of itself provide no real cause for concern. Your opinion is your opinion. The problem is when you attempt to pass it of as credible science, and worse, when you pass it off on unsuspecting folks who regard you as an 'expert'. Tell me sir - how much scientific research have you conducted prior in The Bahamas and how many papers have you published on coral reef ecosystems The Bahamas?
Your plans to return to The Bahamas and conduct additional studies are welcomed. I strongly recommend that this work be peer review material. Your data plus the data that our environmental team will collect plus the other work we will fund by several reef ecologist should provide more than enough evidence as to a) the current status of the reef systems at and around our project, b) point source and non-point sources of any pollutants and other harmful materials impacting the reefs, and c) establish necessary baseline information from which we can make meaningful management decisions regarding the reefs in and around the Abacos and perhaps the Bahamas.
Our scientists already have almost two years of data on several important ecosystem reference points as well as key indicators of environmental quality. We will continue this work into the future as a means of decision making and environmental protection.
"I may be returning to the island this January with my research assistants to conduct quantitative studies and begin lab work on the pathogens that are infecting these already immuno-compromised corals due to the recent bleaching event. my animals can recover if they are not further stressed ie. sedimentation and nutrient enrichment, along with the temps returning to normal."
It is interesting to note that even you must admit that the reefs in question are already "immuno-comprised.....due to the recent bleaching event" and that "the animals can recover if they are not further stressed i.e., sedimentation and nutrient enrichment with the temps returning to normal." Tell me: with the volume of water in play on the Atlantic side of the BBC project and very importantly the likelihood that water temps will not return to 'normal' perhaps for decades - how can you argue that a golf course will kill the reefs in the area? What is the current contribution of the nutrients and other possible pathogens from Guana Cay right now and what are their impacts on the existing reefs?
Seems like you have taken a position with regards to what the ecosystem around the BBC project will look like with a golf course and is now going out to find data to support that position. I learned in second year undergraduate studies such an approach is not the way to go.
Dr. Cervino: I am convinced you mean well, however I suggest you get a bit more facts about the BBC golf course and especially more scientific data upon which you can make valid conclusions. Anyone can get up and begin yelling 'they are going to kill the reef with a golf course!" Having facts and data to prove such a claim is an entirely different story. The design, construction and management of our golf course will be at the highest standards possible. Rather that say that golf courses will kill reefs, we should all be making noises about global warming and loss of the ozone layer which have been demonstrated years ago to be major contributors to coral reef decline , as well as harmful to lower trophic level organisms. While we are worried (rightfully so) about potential threats to coral reefs in The Bahamas, who is worrying about the significant threats that supersedes any potential threats by golf courses?
Tell me: If your temperatures do not return to 'normal' in the next 10 to 20 years, what is going to happen to your already 'immuno-compromised corals'? Very importantly: are the pathogens you discovered thus far on the reefs in the Guana Cay vicinity coming from the BBC project or more likely the nearby residence at Great Guana Cay? Such a question should be relatively easy to answer.
In closing, I am very interested in coral reef health and restoration. Through the Great Guana Cay Foundation we are establishing, we will leverage and cause many additional studies to be conducted that will contribute to a better understanding of coral reef ecology.
Finally: this time when you come into The Bahamas to conduct research, please get the necessary research permits from the proper Government of The Bahamas Department. There are many folks out there who are quick to accuse good folks of breaking laws and not getting necessary permits.
All the best in your endeavors,
(Discovery Land Company representative)
Dr. Cervino responds to the Discovery Land Company representative:
Yes, as you so pointed out "that my assessment report is based on scientific observations" The 15 years of work that you so graciously discount along with the work of Dr. Goreau who has lived and worked in the Caribbean for 50 years seem to not be respected by you. Have you heard of our work? He was my PhD advisor. Have you heard of the work published by Drs LaPointe, Ivan Valiella, Scott Nixon, Peter Bell?
Do you know the critical levels of nutrients that need to be respected in a coral reef ecosystem? Your lack of understanding and publications involving coral reefs is shocking to me. Does Discovery Land Company know that you do not have the proper credentials needed to work on the health effects on coral reefs? As requested below are my publications involving coral health and physiology.
I took a moment to look at your response and think the point is being missed here. The papers show how high levels of nutrients will effect the rate of spread of coral diseases. Yes we know that they are not about golf courses, however, I now see that you need per reviewed publications that show the effects of run-off from golf courses and its impacts on marine ecosystems in general. I will gladly provide them for you.
AGAIN HERE ARE THE LEVELS: Biologically available nitrogen (nitrate plus ammonia) needs to be below 1.0 micromole per liter (less than 0.014 parts per million of nitrogen), and biologically available phosphorus (orthophosphate plus dissolved organic phosphorus) needs to be below 0.1 micromole per liter (less than 0.003 parts per million of phosphorus). In addition concentrations of chlorophyll (in the microscopic plants called phytoplankton) needs to be below 0.5 parts per billion.
DLC Representative WROTE: In closing, I am very interested in coral reef health and restoration. Through the Great Guana Cay Foundation we are establishing, we will leverage and cause many additional studies to be conducted that will contribute to a better understanding of coral reef ecology.
JAMES: This is amusing - additional studies to obtain a better understanding of coral reef ecology!! This is similar to allowing Dick Cheney prepare the safe levels of carbon emissions at the next Kyoto Meeting. Tell me Mr Marshall now that you are working for the developer, what are the critical levels of nutrients that your team of scientists have established for a living reef system? Can I please see your in vitro and in situ studies? What are those publications? I did a search in Marine Ecology Progress Series, Coral Reefs, Journal of Science, Nature, Marine Biology etc and could not find your research involving coral reef ecosystems? When was your work published in Nature? Please give me the citation on your high tech safe technology that eliminates the nitrogen and phosphorus levels that are unsafe for corals? Where is the work you are conducting cited?
DLC Representative WROTE: Finally: this time when you come into The Bahamas to conduct research, please get the necessary research permits from the proper Government of The Bahamas Department. There are many folks out there who are quick to accuse good folks of breaking laws and not getting necessary permits.
JAMES: I was not aware that I need a permit to collect mucus samples and conduct belt transects. Please do-not make these types of threats as your intentions are transparent. For you to bring this up tells me that you would actually try and block any type of permitting that I would need to conduct lab studies in Guana. Are you saying that you and your multimillion dollar company will oversee my permit application? Does your company have that type of power and influence in the Govt? What you do forget sir, is that I can set up experiments here in my lab without your blessing and obtain answers that investigate the links to your golf course, un-safe levels of nutrients and sedimentation on corals. Would you like to conduct such experiments with me?
Your company is very wealthy why get back into the trenches and work as a investigative scientist again instead of working for a group of people that will hurt the ecosystem the poor to middle class people of the Bahamas rely on? I urge you to reverse your position and work with us on saving this reef system.
Here are my peer reviewed publications involving coral reef physiology, ecology, and pathology.
**Testimony for Congressional Briefing, December 1998, the White House. "Briefing For The Conference Of Parties To The Framework Convention On Climate Change, Coral Reefs And Global Change: Impacts Of Temperature, Bleaching, And Emerging Diseases." Invitation from Rafe Pomerance, Advisor on Environmental Affairs to Vice President Al Gore. Presentation reviewed the state of the Oceans, and Climate Change.
1) Cervino, J M., T. J. Goreau, R. Hayes, G. Smith, D. Santavy, E.C.Peters, K. DeMeyer, I. Nagelkerken, B. Boekhoudt. 1997 A New Caribbean coral disease. Proc. AMLC 28:43
2) Cervino, J. M. et al.1998. The Association of Rapid Wasting Syndrome, and Parrotfish White Spot Behavior (Letter) Science 6-12-98 vol. 280, no.:5370.
3) Goreau T.J. , J. M. Cervino, M. Goreau., R. Hayes, M. Hayes, L. Richardson, G.Smith, K. DeMeyer, I. Negelkerkin, J. Garzon-Ferrera, D. Gil, G. Garrison, E.Willams & L. Bunkley-Willams , Craig Quirolo, K. Patterson, J.Porter, K. Porter, Rapid Spread of diseases in Caribbean coral reefs. Proc. AMLC, Rev. Biol. Trop., 46 Supl. 5:157-171
4) Goreau, TJ. Cervino, J.M.1998 Assessing coral reef health (Letter) Nature, 277:165.
5) Cervino JM., Goreau TJ., Nagelkerken I., Smith GW., Hayes R. 2001. Yellow Band and Dark Spot Syndromes in caribbean Corals: Distribution, Rate of Spread, Cytology and Effects on Abundance and Dividion Rate of Zooxanthellae. Hydrobiologia 460: 53-63.
6) Cervino JM.., R.L. Hayes, M. Honovich, T.J. Goreau, S. Jones, P.J. Rubec. 2003. Changes in zooxanthellae density, morphology, and mitotic index in hermatypic corals and anemones exposed to cyanide. Marine Pollution Bulletin. 46: 573-586.
7) Cervino JM., Polson S.W., Polson S.J., Hayes R., Goreau T.J. and Smith GW. 2004. Vibrio spp. Infection and Elevated Temperatures as Links to Yellow Blotch/Band Disease in the Caribbean. Applied and Environmental Microbiology. Vol. 70, No. 11) .
8) Cervino JM., Goreau T.J., Polson S.W., Polson S.J.,and Smith GW. 2005. Sponge diseases in New Britain, Papua New Guinea. (In PRESS- Marine Ecology Progress Series) 2005.
9) ) Cervino J.M., Goreau TJ., Hayes R.L., Smith G.W. 2004. Zooxanthellae regulation in Yellow blotch/band and other coral diseases contrasted with temperature related bleaching: in-situ destruction vs expulsion. Symbiosis, 37 (2004) 63-85 63.
10) Goreau T.J., Cervino J. M., and R. Pollina.(2004). Increased Zooxanthellae Numbers and Mitotic Index in Electrically Stimulated Corals, Symbiosis, (37)107-120
11) J.M. Cervino, J. Golec-Parker, C. Quirolo, T.J. Goreau and R.L. Hayes Global Warming Review 2004. "INCREASED SEA TEMPERATURE WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WOULD EXACERBATE EMERGING DISEASE IN REEF-BUILDING CORALS". Volume 17.
12) Cervino, J. Smith, G. 1997. Corals in Peril. Ocean Realm, Summer issue, pp. 33-35.
13) Cervino, J.M. & Goreau,T.J., 1997,Coral Bleaching. Ocean Realm, Spring issue.
SOME OF DR GOREAUS Publications
T. J. Goreau, 1992, Bleaching and reef community change in Jamaica: 1951-1991, in SYMPOSIUM ON LONG TERM DYNAMICS OF CORAL REEFS, AMERICAN ZOOLOGIST, 32: 683-695.
T. J. Goreau, 1992, Technological options which minimize the loss of biological diversity, p. 67-73 in Environmentally Sound Technology FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, United Nations, New York.
T. J. Goreau, 1992, An analytical framework for environmentally sound technology assessment, p. 88-92 in Environmentally Sound Technology FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, United Nations, New York.
T. J. Goreau, 1992, Control of atmospheric carbon dioxide, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 2: 5-11.
T. J. Goreau, 1992, Coral reef protection and coastal development in Western Jamaica, p 39-65 in PROTECTING JAMAICA'S CORAL REEFS: WATER QUALITY ISSUES, (K. Thacker, Ed.).
T. J. Goreau, 1992, Negril: environmental threats and recommended actions, p 9-37 in PROTECTING JAMAICA'S CORAL REEFS: WATER QUALITY ISSUES, (K. Thacker, Ed.).
T. J. Goreau, 1991, Coral reef health in the Negril area: survey and recommendations, p. 32-70 in Reef Relief and the Negril Coral Reef Preservation Society, Protecting Jamaica's Coral Reefs: Final report of the Negril Reef mooring buoy workshop and installation project, Key West, Florida.
The Discovery Land Company representative writes back:
I am glad that you are now taking this matter seriously.
Several points:
1. I am not a coral reef expert nor do I claim to be one. I am a Fisheries Ecologist. I can either collaborate with coral reef ecologist to produce scientific conclusions or I can cause such science/scientist to be funded to produce scientific-based recommendations and or best management practices. Great scientists are focused on one thing - Great science. Your publication record is very decent - how do you explain that 'report' placed on the SGCR website?
2. Do not get sensitive on me about threats. My note does not even begin to go in that direction. I am a Bahamian and I am sick and tired of half rate scientists (as well as others) coming into this country and spreading mis-truths all in the name of science - while not even having the decency to know the requirements for carrying out 'research' much less getting the required permits. That sir, has nothing to do with my company, it has to do with complying with the laws of my country! I have no interest in blocking good science - I have spent my career promoting it. Come to The Bahamas and do great science, you will be welcomed with open arms. Anything less, well, we will have the kinds of exchanges we are having now. By the way: please contact the Department of Fisheries in Nassau (Director, Mr. Michael Braynen) for information regarding a research permit. Also: be prepared to share your data and results with the Department such that we can continue to build the internal scientific capacity so badly needed in our country.
3. The scientist who prepared the EIA for DLC spent months gathering data and preparing the report. After 3 - 4 days you know better? The monitoring initiatives we have ongoing is not being done simply for a conversation piece; this is critical information needed to make serious management decisions.
4. If I am to work with you on 'saving' this reef we have to face reality and begin to tackle the kinds of issues I mentioned in my initial email. For you, this seems to be about making a name for yourself by taking on development in my country. You know as well as I do, that this is no real fight. My company can do more for habitat and ecosystem restoration in The Bahamas than you could ever do to as a scare tactician. The reef in the vicinity of Great Guana Cay has been in serious decline and trouble for many tears - you politely ignored this point raised in my earlier email. Your initial email as much as said so - why not speak to the real issues here?!
5. There are many threats to coral reefs ecosystems in this as well as other countries: pollution (don't get me started on this one), overfishing and or unsustainable fishing practices, global climate change, habitat fragmentation, global warming, atmospheric transport of various materials and contaminants (such as methyl mercury from industrial plants, many of which do not occur in this country), etc., etc.
6. When ever you are in Marsh Harbour, Abaco, please call me at (phone number). I will take you on a personal tour of our project and have our engineers, scientist, and environmental management team share with you the novel approach DLC is taking to build the golf course. Yes, it represents a novel and significant departure from the 'old' way of building golf courses. It is not my goal to change your way of thinking, simply to provide you with the information that allows you to know what we are doing in terms of our development and environmental protection. You will find that it easily surpasses anything being done in this region, and perhaps even in the US. As you already know, developers will continue to build golf courses; we may as well ensure that they are the most environmentally friendly facilities that science, technology and $$ can provide.
7. Final point: DLC has spent close to $2 million cleaning up the environmental mess left behind by the previous operators at Baker's Bay; restoring beach dunes; recovering and translocating rare and protected plants; as well as deploying thousands of lbs of artificial reefs. We have already done more to enhance and protect the ecosystems of Great Guana Cay than any single entity in the history of Great Guana Cay. I am working on behalf of my company to establish an 88 acre preserve as well as establishing a Foundation to support basic research, education and further delve into this business of sustainable development in small island states like the Bahamas. What we are doing here is making a real impact on the lives of real people. We are currently spending at least $200K - 300K annually on our environmental budget. And after all this, I am supposed to believe that we are trying to kill reefs and destroy the environment? Perhaps, but only after you convince me that raw sewerage going directly into the marine environment is better than installing a state-of-the-art waste treatment plant.
The Discovery Land Company representative responds:
Dear Dr. Cervino:
I do not intend to get into a dissertation type discussion with you regarding the BBC project. I fully recognize that you have a busy schedule.
I am most interested in all involved taking more of a responsible, professional and factually/scientifically based approach to this development as opposed to the emotional and anecdotal approaches I have seen too much of already. The fact that the BBC project has an 8 member environmental management team (inclusive of two Ph.D.'s) is lost on many persons. This in and of itself is unprecedented and should be a very indication that the BBC developers and the Bahamian Government are serious about the environment.
Billions of dollars of development is planned for this country and I am sure throughout the region. It is going to happen in most cases because of the realities of politics, economics, and simple need to put food in the belly's of citizens. What we need is to produce the 'optimal' models and criteria to address these many issues and not an attack on a single project; especially when most of the attacks are biased, prejudiced, and filled with ulterior motives.
At the end of the day - our interest is the same; sustainable development, environmental protection and healthy ecosystems. The trick is in finding the right pathway to get us there.
Best regards
(Discovery Land Company representative)
Dr. Cervino responds to the Discovery Land Company representative.
Dear (DLC Representative),
I carefully read through the report you sent to me and there seems to be NO approach to controlling the levels of nitrogen and phosphorus that will result from Discovery Land Co building this golf course. Since you are the chief scientific advisor, are you addressing the concerns of eutrophication as a result of the building of the FERTILIZER rich golf course that will result in the growth of smothering algae that will kill this reef ? Drs LaPointe, Risk and Goreau and myself all agree that any building of a golf course will result in this reefs demise.
From what I see there is no where in the report that allows the reader to understand that your employer understands that coral reef ecosystems are adapted to oligotrophic tropical and subtropical marine seawater and are very sensitive to low level increases in the concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) not to mention how one is going to recycle the critical levels of nutrients that cannot be breached surrounding the waters of Guana as this will induce a high source, if breached, and unfavorable form of cultural eutrophication and kill the eel grasses and corals which will cause a collapse in the eco-system. So the question I am asking is how will the N and P be dealt with and if so (as a result of me missing it) what will those levels be after treatment?
As Brian reported in his attached papers "southeast Florida experienced an unprecedented succession of macroalgal blooms first evidenced by unattached populations of the green alga Codium isthmocladum on deep (>30 m) reefs. Historically, C. isthmocladum occurred at low standing crops in these deep reef communities (24-58 m) in the 1970s (Hanisak and Blair, 1988).
LaPointe et al., 2005 also reported that recent blooms resulted in biomass accumulations up to 2 m thick over the reef surface, which resulted in an emigration of reef fish populations from the impacted areas and die-offs of sponges, hard corals and soft corals via physical smothering and hypoxia/anoxia leading to an ecosystem decline. We are seeing this surrounding the artificial reef location. The macrophytes are covering this artificial reef system as well as the early stages of smothering occurring surrounding the holdfasts of the mangroves.
My references:
(Birkeland, 1987; Done, 1992; Lapointe et al., 1993, 1997; Lapointe, 1997; NRC, 2000; Bellwood et al., 2004; Lapointe, 1987, 1997, 1999; Larned and Stimson, 1996; Schaffelke and Klumpp, 1998; Lapointe and Hanisak, 1997; Lapointe et al., 2004; Johannes, 1975; Tomascik and Sander, 1987; Bell, 1992; NRC, 1995; Dubinsky and Stambler, 1996).
The Discovery Land Company representative writes back:
I do not recall sending you a report.
Further, the mistake you and many others are making is to initially conclude that that DLC is "building ..... [a] FERTILIZER rich golf course". This is NOT the case. We are using seashore paspalum as turfgrass which has been demonstrated in several cases to require little to no fertilizers and are also VERY salt tolerant (and therefore is very pest resistant and requires very little if any pesticide/herbicides).
* Moreover, we have scientific and monitoring protocols to address the issues of runoff and control of any fertilizer or pesticide/herbicide we may use. Further, I am assembling the best possible team of experts any course will see to minimize any risk to the environment, especially the reef.
* I will say again the BBC Golf Course will be more environmentally sensitive than any golf course built to date, especially when we consider our: (i) state-of-the-art grasses, (ii) coastal buffers, (iii) internal drainage system and created wetlands, and (iv) lining of tees and greens to further protect the most sensitive coastal areas.
Dr. Cervino addresses the representatives' emails:
"I do not recall sending you a report. Further, the mistake you and many others are making is to initially conclude that that DLC is "building Š.. [a] FERTILIZER rich golf course". This is NOT the case. We are using seashore paspalum as turfgrass which has been demonstrated in several cases to require little to no fertilizers and are also VERY salt tolerant (and therefore is very pest resistant and requires very little if any pesticide/herbicides)."
JAMES CERVINO: Phosphorus concentration in the forage tissue and phosphorus uptake increased with increasing phosphorus application rates (Figure 3). However, the percentage of the applied phosphorus recovered in the tissue decreased with increasing application rates. For plots receiving 100 lb phosphate per acre, phosphorus recovery was 75% of that applied. This indicates that as much as 25% of the phosphorus applied to these plots was not taken up by the plants and is therefore subject to leaching. And this will be continuous on your Discovery golf course.
Chick, J.H. and McIvor, C.C., 1994. Patterns in the abundance and composition of fishes among beds of different macrophytes: viewing a littoral zone as a landscape. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 2873-82.
Chifamba, P.C., 1990. Preference of Tilapia rendalli (Boulenger) for some species of aquatic plants. J. Fish Biol. 36: 701-5.
Crowder, L.B. and W.E. Cooper, 1979a. The effects of macrophyte removal on the feeding efficiency and growth of sunfishes: evidence from pond studies. In: Aquatic Plants, Lake Management and Ecosystem Consequences of Lake Harvesting (eds J.E. Breck, R.T. Prentki and O.L. Loucks): 251-68. Inst. Environ. Stud., Madison, Wisconsin.
Dale, H.M. and T.J. Gillespie, 1977. The influence of sumbersed aquatic plants on temperature gradients in shallow water bodies. Can. J. Bot. 55: 2216-25.
JAMES CERVINIO: According to Junk (1973) measured vertical oxygen profiles in stands of Leersia hexandra in Lago dos Passarinhos (25 km from Manaus, Brasil). The profile was similar to that measured in dense stands of Paspalum repens of varzea: high dissolved oxygen concentrations at the surface, rapid decrease into the roots, and a slight increase at the lower margin caused by an inflow of oxygenated water from open areas. Within 20 cm depth the dissolved oxygen concentration dropped to less than 0.5 mg L-1, and H2S sometimes formed at a depth of 30 to 140 cm. In a dense, floating island in Lago Paru, 10 m inside the mat of Paspalum repens, the dissolved oxygen concentration dropped from 6-8 mg L-1 at the surface to almost nil in a depth of 20 cm, to increase to about 3 mg L-1 at 30 cm and deeper. Junk (1973) also noted that low conductivity of water is not a limiting factor for faunal abundance in the floating meadows of the varzea, until it falls below 30 É S20.
"* Moreover, we have scientific and monitoring protocols to address the issues of runoff and control of any fertilizer or pesticide/herbicide we may use. Further, I am assembling the best possible team of experts any course will see to minimize any risk to the environment, especially the reef.
* I will say again the BBC Golf Course will be more environmentally sensitive than any golf course built to date, especially when we consider our: (i) state-of-the-art grasses, (ii) coastal buffers, (iii) internal drainage system and created wetlands, and (iv) lining of tees and greens to further protect the most sensitive coastal areas."
JAMES CERVINO: However this will not stop the direct flow of N and P to leach through the limestone substrate! Again; Biologically available nitrogen (nitrate plus ammonia) needs to be below 1.0 micromole per liter (less than 0.014 parts per million of nitrogen), and biologically available phosphorus (orthophosphate plus dissolved organic phosphorus) needs to be below 0.1 micromole per liter (less than 0.003 parts per million of phosphorus). In addition concentrations of chlorophyll (in the microscopic plants called phytoplankton) needs to be below 0.5 parts per billion. Are you showing these levels in your report?
The Discovery Land Representative responds:
Ok. I am of the view that our golf course (and marina) design, adaptive management and aggressive monitoring is and will make significant differences in terms of any potential impacts on the environment. I will continue to work with teams of scientist to protect the environment and make BBC the most environmentally sensitive project ever in The Bahamas.
We will never agree on these overall issues, so I thank you for your time and efforts in working to contribute to science and overall marine ecology.
Best regards,
(Discovery Land Company Representative)
Dr. Michael Risk enters the debate with a note to the DLC Representative:
Good day Dr. (Discovery Land Company representative), colleagues.
I have chosen to enter this discussion because I feared it was starting to generate more heat than light.
Allow me to introduce myself. I am a coral reef ecologist with almost 50 years' experience in the field. I have worked in all the world's major reef provinces, and advise several countries (including yours,
through CPACC) on reef monitoring and impact issues. I have worked with many NGO's, including Earthwatch. I wrote an earlier report on Guana Cay to which you have referred.
My email will refer to your exchange with Dr. Cervino, to your handling of my original report, and to my fundamental concerns.
1. There are aspects of your discussion with Dr. Cervino which require amplification.
It is true that he has no proof that extra stress will kill the reef. Science doesn't work like that. Science developes predictive models. Dr. Cervino has collected data which your group never could have, and
for which they had no plans. I would have thought you would welcome his research as adding to your knowledge of the system.
Discussion of Global Change is a red herring. It is true that the world's reefs face enormous problems in the near future. It is also true that, for example, the Caribbean lost >50% of its reefs long before Global Change became a buzzword. Recent research on this theme (eg, the recent Workshop at Lee Stocking, where I was a Keynote Speaker) has emphasized that we need to do all we can to preserve those reefs that have a chance-Bahamas is mentioned as one example of a reef province with areas that are (to date) largely free of land-based sources of pollution. In short, every effort needs to be made, in Bahamas, to control stress.
I advise the State of Florida on land-based sources of pollution, as a member of the Technical Advisory Committee. Should you wish to access that knowldege base, let me know. But I grow heartily sick of development-minded individuals deflecting attention away from local threats by pointing to the sky and invoking Global Change.
There is an ample literature on the impacts of golf courses. Usually, these are retrospective studies of dying reefs, in areas where developers made much the same promises we hear about Guana. I suggest you contact Bob Richmond, @ U Hawaii.
Cervino is correct: this is fudamentally a question of nutrient input. There are guidelines out there.
2. I am disappointed by the way that my report has been cherrypicked, and my major concerns ignored. It is true that the current residents of Guana Cay come in for some criticism from me, but that needs to be read in the context of my full report. I state:
"In these respects, however, the local residents are no worse than everyone else in the Bahamas-soakaways are universally used to deal with septic waste and, as long as population densities and rainfall are low, this is a solution that works by default. There is some evidence that the local residents are undergoing a consciousness-raising. The citizen's association has begun to hold meetings to discuss feasibility of installation of proper septic systems. In many ways, a properly-maintained septic system, consisting of a two-chamber tank, feedlines and a leach bed, is the ultimate solution to this problem. Breakdown of wastes is total, and it all takes place on the property.
The local inhabitants conserve water, and are conscious of litter. This is not a badly-run island"
I doubt that one could detect any significant nutrient elevation off the present coastline that could be traced to the soakaways. Certainly the present situation is nothing compared to the potential of largescale devastation represented by the proposed development.
3. I have several reservations about the project, as conceived and operated-as I understand things. One always hopes to avoid winding up in court, but this matter may very well do just that. Were I called upon to testify in court, I would say roughly what I outline below.
I was concerned about the marina design. Model flushing rates had to be ruthlessly tweaked to achieve even minimal values. Mike 21 is a workhorse model, one of the Delft Hyraulics Lab family. In order to get the results you need,however, it should be run in 3D mode. There are only a few firms with the expertise to do this. Until this is done, the marina design will be questionable.
Reef monitoring is one of my areas of expertise. (Most current reef monitoring projects are based, wholly or partially, on my 1972 paper.)
I can state without fear of contradiction that adequate baseline studies have never been done. This is surely a prerequisite to ANY development.
Dr. Sealey has had some modest success in using qualitative estimate parameters and volunteer workers, but one does not take research-grade data this way.
My understanding of the present situation is that:
1. artificial reefs have been constructed, without sufficient analysis of existing fish populations. (You are no doubt aware of the controversial nature of this topic.) I would like to see the justification for even building these in the first place.
2. reef monitoring data are being taken using volunteers.
The present situation is untenable. It would be easy for any person experienced in this field to do you serious damage, if they were ever put on the stand. It is not too late for you to pull up your socks.
Here is the way it should have gone:
1. fullblown baseline studies (corals, fish, nutrients), contracted out via open RFP.
2. monitoring program set up after consultation with experts-eg, FMRI, NOAA (I advise both groups).
3. full data exchange via the Web; arms'-length oversight.
I urge you to reconsider your present possition, because you are very vulnerable. The nutrient question is especially vexing. (Yes, I have read the plan.) Studies show that nutrients applied to the surface, in
soil regimes such as those on Guana, will be on the reef in hours. Your client will be more interested in green grass than Green Turtles.
I would not be so pessimistic about the future of Guana if your client/employer had shown signs of being a first-rate corporate citizen. To date, however, they have demonstrated a level of ethics that would make a 19th-century robber baron blush. I am afraid I have seen this film a hundred times already, and it always has the same ending. The pain of a dead reef lingers long after the pleasure of
breaking par.
Mike Risk
Dear Dr. Risk:
Thanks for your note and welcome to the debate.
Please note that I am copying Dr. K. Sullivan Sealey on this note because as you know she was intricately involved in preparing the BBC project EIA. I am also copying Mr. Jeff Malyszek one of the BBC marina engineers because there is mention of our marina design. This allows both individuals to respond/participate if they so desire.
You raise a good point that I just recently touched on with Dr. Cervino: we ant this debate to focus on substance and not so much emotions (or closer to your statement, we want more light than heat).
I would be very receptive to having access to Dr. Cervino and his research. However, the 'report' of his placed on the SGCR site did not exactly send that message. Is there still opportunity for some interactions: certainly.
I agree that all efforts need to be exerted to control stress on coral reefs, especially here in The Bahamas. However, I have argued that we must look at the entire spectrum of potential stress and not attempt to paint a picture that it's only the elimination of the threats posed by development that will solve all issues.
One of your statements requires significant elaborations: "Certainly the present situation is nothing compared to the potential of largescale devastation represented by the proposed development." To what specific "largescale devastation represented by the proposed development" do you refer?
You indicate that "The local [Guana Cay] inhabitants conserve water, and are conscious of litter. This is not a badly-run island". Of course they are conscious of litter, as is most of The Bahamas. However, that is putting it mildly, especially when you say they are 'conscious of litter". There are serious litter related problems (rodents for example) at Great Guana Cay that requires a comprehensive solution. Other similar issues exist that does not make the place a very environmentally consciously run island either. But honestly, this is not really the point. The real issue is how do we make things (the environment) better for Guana Cay and be extension, The Bahamas? (Linkages with the proposed waste treatment plant at BBC is one way).
On the items of 'the present situation' and 'the way it should be done' I will let Dr. Sealey comment on those if she is so inclined. Alternatively, I will confer with her and respond accordingly. Similar sentiments for Mr. Malyszek and the comments you make on the marina.
You indicate that we should reconsider our present position because we are "very vulnerable" and that "Studies show that nutrients applied to the surface, in soil regimes such as those on Guana, will be on the reef in hours." I am sufficiently convinced that the golf course design, irrigation system, use of seashore Paspalum type turf grass, aggressive and extensive monitoring, as well as stat-of-the-art best management practices will adequately minimize this risk.
With regards to the monitoring piece and consultations with experts - eg, FMRI, NOAA. Keep in mind that the Bahamas is a sovereign state. You have every right to disagree with how we do things here, but we have our sovereign right to do things in the best interest of The Bahamas. This development is in the best interest of The Bahamas and we are confident that we can and will do it without 'killing' the reef or causing its dcline!
After all that has been said above, please run your 3-D model clearly showing that we will generate nutrients that will be on the reefs in hours and we will give it the utmost review and considerations.
Finally: Your assertion that the developers have shown no "signs of being first-rate corporate citizens." Perhaps it's these kinds of baseless accusations that have not caused us to pitch a tent and welcome you and others with open arms. Discovery Land Company has already successfully completed at least 9 or 10 golf course in the US. All of them have been built to the highest environmental and corporate standards. Visit their locations, talk to people associated with the projects and make an informed decision. We have talked to and with anyone who has wanted to talk. We have complied with every law of The Bahamas in going about this development. Please list your "demonstration of ethics that would make a 19th-century robber baron blush." The land the company is developing was bought. This business of crown lands is being used by persons who wanted it given to them; DLC is leasing the land at fair market value. Other key points to note:
• Over the next 10 years BBC through the developers, contractors, and local vendors, will employ over 1,000 Bahamians, injecting over $85M in new wages into the economy
• Over ten years the project is projected to generate over $1 billion of direct and indirect goods and services for The Bahamas including revenues for printing, publishing, entertainment, transportation, food and beverage supplies, sanitation services, chemicals, textiles, furniture and equipment, landscaping and more
• $549.3M in total tax revenue to the Bahamian government over the next 10 years
• Investment of $40M to date with an additional $230M to be spent by the developers over the next 5 years
• Expending $10M on infrastructure / community buildings to benefit the Great Guana Cay residents and settlement
• The Project is being developed on 585 acres, of which 460 acres is private land. Previous plans to develop this land were much more intrusive than the BBC plan. Of the approximately 105 acres of crown land in the project, over 50% of this land will be in a preserve for all Bahamians and the remaining land is leased to the developer on market terms. "19th Century robber"? I certainly disagree!
Add to the above that we are doing more for the environment in and around BBC than anyone else at any time.
I have no doubt that you and many others are committed to environmental protection. So am I. But while we go about saving refs, we must also remember that we in The Bahamas have a country to run and put food on the tables of our people. The real task is in finding the balance between the environment and the economy, one that is going to take new ideas, collaborations, and critical thinking.
Best regards,
(Discovery Land Company representative)
Dear (Discovery Land Company representative):
I hesitate to step again into these shark-infested waters. I am a foreigner with no stake in this matter, financial or personal. I know something of the marine environment, and it is to that sphere that I
have confined my remarks.
This matter is clearly at an impasse, for at least the moment. You say you have the answers, they say you do not.
I would like to suggest to you a means by which your company might allay some of the concerns on the opposite side. The only means by which you will be able to demonstrate that the development is having little or no impact is via a rigorous, first-class baseline study and
monitoring program.
You say you have assembled the best team possible. This is far from the truth-and your only hope is that they prove adequate to the task. I suggest that DLC invite an external panel of experts to assess the proposed field methods and analytical protocols: at the same time, these should be posted on the DLC website, as should all field data. The fundamental problem here is a nutrient issue, so I further suggest that the external reviewers could be chosen from people who advise NOAA
on land-based sources of pollution.
If you fail to do this, or something like it, you lay yourself open to the charge of setting up a system in a vacuum, without either evaluation or stakeholder input.
M. Risk
